Poll Shows Center-Left Labor Party on Track to Win Australian Election

Australia’s center-left Labor Party is on course to win this Saturday’s federal election, according to a key new poll showing a solid lead over the conservative Coalition.

The final Resolve Political Monitor survey, published by The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, has Labor ahead of the ruling Coalition by 53% to 47% in two-party preferred terms — a stronger lead than they had heading into the last election.

When it comes to first-choice votes, the numbers are more split: Labor holds steady at 31%, while the Coalition has edged up slightly to 35%. The Greens rose to 14%, and the right-wing One Nation party also gained, now at 7%. Support for independents dropped to 8%.

“This poll puts Labor in a commanding position going into Saturday’s election,” said Charles Croucher, political editor for 9News.

The poll, based on a survey of over 2,000 voters, also revealed declining public sentiment toward Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, whose net approval rating has fallen to -24, a six-point drop in just two weeks. Earlier in the year, he had been in positive territory.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval rating held steady at +1, and he now leads Dutton by 16 points as the preferred prime minister — a significant shift from last December when the two were neck and neck.

However, the Coalition isn’t entirely out of the race. One encouraging sign: about 20% of voters said they’re still undecided, leaving room for last-minute shifts.

“There are still votes to be won in these final days,” Croucher added.

Despite the grim polling numbers, Dutton has dismissed the concerns, citing internal data from his own Liberal Party that he claims shows a path to victory. Still, the campaign’s final stretch has seen Albanese appearing more confident, making spontaneous public appearances, while Dutton canceled one press conference due to anti-nuclear protesters and abruptly ended another after just 15 minutes.